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Author(s):	Backhaus, Jan Onne
Title:	Bauzeitenvorhersage von Injektionen im Tunnelbau
Abstract:	In diesem Beitrag wird eine Methode vorgestellt, die die digitale Dokumentation auf Injektionsbaustellen nutzt, um automatisierte, baubegleitende Bauzeitenvorhersagen zu berechnen. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Genauigkeit der Vorhersagen jener von bisher üblichen händischen Vorhersagemethoden deutlich überlegen sein kann. Hierbei werden traditionelle statistische Methoden und Markow-Ketten innerhalb einer diskreten Ereignissimulation verwendet, um hypothetische Projektverläufe zu berechnen. Diese werden mit einer Monte-Carlo-Simulation in eine Vorhersage für die Gesamtbauzeit überführt. Die Daten wurden von der Renesco GmbH in Zusammenarbeit mit der eguana GmbH erhoben. Construction time prediction of injections in tunnel construction This paper presents a method that uses digital documentation on injection construction sites to calculate automated construction time forecasts during construction. It is shown that the accuracy of the prediction can be clearly superior to conventional manual prediction methods. Traditional statistical methods and Markov chains within a discrete event simulation are used to calculate hypothetical project progressions. These are converted into a prediction for the total construction time with a Monte-Carlo simulation. The data were collected by Renesco GmbH in cooperation with eguana GmbH.
Source:	Bautechnik 97 (2020), No. 9
Page/s:	626-636
Language of Publication:	German

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